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Illustration of an arrow moving a subscriber from a red-roofed competitor house to a fiber-connected house with a block of ports, beside a rising revenue chart, for the TheWriter.id guide to competitor subscriber conversion.

FTTH Strategy • Commercial tools

Competitor Subscriber Conversion Simulator: Forecast Revenue, CAC and FAT Port Demand

By Junun Saleh · Updated · Built on Bisnis.com, Ofcom, EY and Politeknik Negeri Malang sources, each linked below

Most competitor-acquisition plans answer one question, how many customers can we win, and stop. The board then asks three more. What does it do to revenue and ARPU? Which offer pays back fastest? Will the network in those streets cope? This page works through all four with one illustrative FTTH footprint, shows each result as a moving chart, and explains how to run the same model with your own numbers in the Competitor Subscriber Conversion Simulator.

Quick answer: A competitor subscriber conversion simulator forecasts what winning a rival ISP’s subscribers does to your business. It links three models. Revenue: switch rate, churn and promotion terms give subscriber growth, switcher ARPU and incremental revenue. Acquisition: the promotion, marketing and installation costs give CAC and payback. Capacity: switchers by coverage area give market share and the ODP and PON ports you must add. In our illustrative footprint, 276 switchers over 12 months add Rp 368 juta of revenue, pay back in 6.5 to 9.8 months depending on the offer, lift market share from 34.4% to 40.1%, and need 21 new ODPs costing about Rp 247,5 juta. Run your own numbers on our Tools page.

In this page, a switcher is a household that moves from a competitor to your network. ARPU is average monthly revenue per subscriber; blended ARPU covers all subscribers. CAC is the cost to acquire one switcher, including marketing, installation net of any fee, and the value of the promotion. Payback is the month in which cumulative cash per switcher turns positive. An ODP (optical distribution point), often called a FAT, is the street box with the final splitter and the ports that drop cables connect to. A PON port on the OLT feeds a group of ODPs.

How does converting competitor subscribers change subscriber growth, ARPU and revenue?

Switchers add revenue month by month as they arrive and again when their promotional price ends, while the company’s blended ARPU barely moves. A forecast therefore needs four inputs per month: gross wins, churn among switchers, the promotional price and how long it lasts. The model below uses a Rp 250.000 plan, close to Indonesian list prices for 75 to 100 Mbps plans, which Bisnis.com reported at Rp 233.100 to Rp 279.000 a month in January 2026 (Bisnis.com: home internet prices 2026).

Rp 224.000IndiHome ARPU in Q1 2025, across 9.8 million home customersBisnis.com, May 2025
Rp 233–279kmonthly list prices for 75 to 100 Mbps from MyRepublic, IndiHome and XL SATU, January 2026Bisnis.com
37%of households in 14 countries had recently switched broadband provider or planned to within 12 monthsEY, December 2025
3.43mpeople in the UK started a One Touch Switch in its first two yearsOfcom, September 2026

Converted competitor subscribers and incremental MRR over 18 monthsA column chart of active switchers by month. Columns grow from month 1 to month 12 as 23 subscribers switch each month, reaching 261 active switchers, then ease to 246 by month 18 as switching stops and 1 percent churn continues. The amber part of each column is on a six-month promotional price and the teal part pays full price. Labels show 135 switchers and Rp 26.9 juta of incremental MRR at month 6, 261 and Rp 58.6 juta at month 12, and 246 and Rp 61.5 juta at month 18.Converted subscribers and incremental MRR, month by monthSwitching campaign: 23 gross wins a month for 12 monthsM3135 subsRp 26,9 jtM6M9261 subsRp 58,6 jtM12M15246 subsRp 61,5 jtM18On the 6-month promo price (Rp 200.000)At the full price (Rp 250.000). Green: incremental MRR.Illustrative model: 276 gross wins, 1% monthly churn among switchers. 12-month incremental revenue: Rp 368 juta.Converted competitor subscribers and incremental MRR over 18 monthsA column chart of active switchers by month. Columns grow from month 1 to month 12 as 23 subscribers switch each month, reaching 261 active switchers, then ease to 246 by month 18 as switching stops and 1 percent churn continues. The amber part of each column is on a six-month promotional price and the teal part pays full price. Labels show 135 switchers and Rp 26.9 juta of incremental MRR at month 6, 261 and Rp 58.6 juta at month 12, and 246 and Rp 61.5 juta at month 18.Switchers and incremental MRRM6M12M18M6: 135 switchers, Rp 26,9 jt MRRM12: 261 switchers, Rp 58,6 jt MRRM18: 246 switchers, Rp 61,5 jt MRRAmber: on the Rp 200.000 promo. Teal: full price.Shaded: 12-month campaign, 23 wins a month.Illustrative; 1% monthly churn among switchers.

Figure 1: Incremental MRR keeps rising after switching stops, because promotional cohorts roll onto the full price. Model the promo end date, not just the win count (illustrative model).

Figure 1 shows why a win count alone misleads. The campaign stops at month 12, yet incremental MRR keeps rising to month 18, from Rp 58,6 juta to Rp 61,5 juta, because cohorts on the six-month promotion move to the full price even as churn takes 1% a month. Over the first 12 months the switchers add Rp 368 juta of revenue. The figures are illustrative; the shape is the point. Switchers are one part of take-rate growth; our FTTH growth strategy guide covers the rest.

Average revenue per switcher compared with blended ARPU across 18 monthsTwo lines from month 0 to month 18. The amber line, revenue per switcher, starts at Rp 200,000 while every switcher is on the promotional price, rises after month 6 as cohorts reach full price, and reaches Rp 250,000 at month 18. The blue line, blended ARPU across all subscribers, stays between about Rp 246,000 and Rp 250,000 throughout. Both lines draw from left to right.Switcher ARPU moves; blended ARPU barely doesRp 200kRp 225kRp 250kSwitcher ARPU: Rp 200k on promoBlended ARPU: Rp 246k to 250kM12: Rp 224kM0M6M12M18Illustrative: 1,650 existing subscribers at Rp 250.000; switchers pay Rp 200.000 for 6 months, then Rp 250.000.The lowest blended ARPU is Rp 246.229, only 1.5% below list: the promo cost shows up in payback, not in the ARPU line.Average revenue per switcher compared with blended ARPU across 18 monthsTwo lines from month 0 to month 18. The amber line, revenue per switcher, starts at Rp 200,000 while every switcher is on the promotional price, rises after month 6 as cohorts reach full price, and reaches Rp 250,000 at month 18. The blue line, blended ARPU across all subscribers, stays between about Rp 246,000 and Rp 250,000 throughout. Both lines draw from left to right.Switcher vs blended ARPU200k225k250kM0M6M12M18Amber: switcher ARPU, Rp 200k to 250k.Blue: blended ARPU, Rp 246k to 250k.Illustrative: 1,650 base subscribers at Rp 250.000;switchers pay Rp 200.000 for 6 months.Blended ARPU never falls more than 1.5%.

Figure 2: A promotion changes the switchers’ ARPU a lot and the company’s blended ARPU very little. Track both, or a discount campaign will look free (illustrative model).

Figure 2 separates two ARPU lines that are often confused. Revenue per switcher starts at Rp 200.000 and climbs back to Rp 250.000 as promotions expire. Blended ARPU across 1,650 existing subscribers and the new switchers never falls more than 1.5%, to Rp 246.229. A finance team watching blended ARPU will conclude the promotion is nearly free. It is not; its cost sits in payback, which the next section measures. For reference, IndiHome reported ARPU of Rp 224.000 in Q1 2025 (Bisnis.com), below the list prices above, so use the price switchers actually pay, not a list price. For the wider pricing question, see how fiber providers can grow ARPU without increasing churn.

Revenue inputs to set before you forecast
Input Model value Where to get yours
Gross wins per month 23 for 12 months (276) Past campaign results by area, not a national survey
Churn among switchers 1% a month Churn of customers acquired in your last promotion
Promotional price and length Rp 200.000 for 6 months The offer you plan to run
Full price Rp 250.000 The plan switchers actually choose

Which promotion gives the best customer acquisition cost and payback?

No promotion gives the lowest CAC and fastest payback per switcher, but richer offers win more households, so the best offer is the one whose extra switchers outweigh its cost and its promotion-end losses. Indonesian operators use all three common incentives. Internet Rakyat, a 5G fixed wireless service, waived the first month and offered free installation and modem rental (Bisnis.com, November 2025). MyRepublic offered new customers a second-month bill of Rp 17.845 before VAT with free installation in August 2026 (Bisnis.com, August 2026). IndiHome and XL SATU listed free installation and a free router or modem in January 2026 (Bisnis.com).

Customer acquisition cost per switcher for four offersFour stacked horizontal bars. No promotion, at a 5 percent switch rate, costs Rp 900,000 per switcher. Free installation, at 8 percent, costs Rp 1,087,500. Two free months, at 11 percent, costs Rp 1,236,000. Twenty percent off for 12 months, at 12 percent, costs Rp 1,325,000. Each bar is split into marketing per switcher, installation net of any fee, and promotion value, and grows from the left.Customer acquisition cost per switcher, by offerMarketing per switcherInstallation, net of feePromotion valueNo promotionSwitch rate 5%Rp 900kFree installationSwitch rate 8%Rp 1.088kTwo free monthsSwitch rate 11%Rp 1.236k20% off for 12 monthsSwitch rate 12%Rp 1.325kIllustrative: Rp 15.000 campaign cost per targeted household ÷ switch rate; Rp 900.000 installation and ONT; Rp 300.000 fee unlesswaived; promotion value at the Rp 250.000 list price. The richer the offer, the lower the marketing cost per switcher.Customer acquisition cost per switcher for four offersFour stacked horizontal bars. No promotion, at a 5 percent switch rate, costs Rp 900,000 per switcher. Free installation, at 8 percent, costs Rp 1,087,500. Two free months, at 11 percent, costs Rp 1,236,000. Twenty percent off for 12 months, at 12 percent, costs Rp 1,325,000. Each bar is split into marketing per switcher, installation net of any fee, and promotion value, and grows from the left.CAC per switcher, by offerMarketingInstall, netPromo valueNo promotionSwitch rate 5%Rp 900kFree installationSwitch rate 8%Rp 1.088kTwo free monthsSwitch rate 11%Rp 1.236k20% off for 12 monthsSwitch rate 12%Rp 1.325kIllustrative: Rp 15.000 per targeted household÷ switch rate; Rp 900.000 install and ONT; Rp 300.000fee unless waived; promo value at list price.

Figure 3: Richer offers raise CAC per switcher but cut the marketing cost of finding each one, because more targeted households say yes (illustrative assumptions).

Figure 3 compares four offers per switcher. Marketing cost per switcher falls as the offer improves, because the same Rp 15.000 spent on each targeted household produces more yeses: Rp 300.000 per switcher at a 5% switch rate, Rp 125.000 at 12%. Installation is the largest line in every case. That is why a failed or delayed installation is so expensive in a conversion campaign: the cost is spent and the subscriber never pays. Our ISP Failed Installation Cost Calculator puts a number on that loss.

Cumulative cash per switcher over 24 months for four offers, with payback monthsFour lines start below zero at month 0, the upfront cost of each switcher, and rise as monthly gross profit arrives. No promotion pays back at month 6.5, free installation at 7.9, twenty percent off for 12 months at 8.3, and two free months at 9.8. The two-free-months line falls for two months before rising. By month 24 the lines reach Rp 2.4, 2.2, 1.8 and 1.8 million. The lines draw from left to right and dots mark each payback month.Cumulative cash per switcher and payback monthRp -1 jtRp 0Rp 1 jtRp 2 jtNo promotionFree installationTwo free months20% off, 12 moM0M6M12M18M24Dots: payback month. No promotion 6.5, free installation 7.9, 20% off 8.3, two free months 9.8. Service cost Rp 112.500 a month;10% of two-free-month and 8% of 20%-off switchers leave when the promotion ends. All inputs illustrative.Cumulative cash per switcher over 24 months for four offers, with payback monthsFour lines start below zero at month 0, the upfront cost of each switcher, and rise as monthly gross profit arrives. No promotion pays back at month 6.5, free installation at 7.9, twenty percent off for 12 months at 8.3, and two free months at 9.8. The two-free-months line falls for two months before rising. By month 24 the lines reach Rp 2.4, 2.2, 1.8 and 1.8 million. The lines draw from left to right and dots mark each payback month.Cash per switcher, 24 months-1 jt01 jt2 jtM0M12M24No promotion: payback 6.5 moFree installation: payback 7.9 moTwo free months: payback 9.8 mo20% off for 12 months: payback 8.3 moDots mark payback. Promo-end drop-off: 10% (twofree months), 8% (20% off). All inputs illustrative.

Figure 4: Free months delay payback more than a discount of similar value, because service costs run while nothing is billed (illustrative assumptions).
Four offers compared per switcher and per 1,000 targeted households (illustrative)
Offer Switch rate CAC Payback Cash after 24 months, per 1,000 targeted
No promotion 5% Rp 900.000 6.5 months Rp 120,0 juta
Free installation 8% Rp 1.087.500 7.9 months Rp 177,0 juta
Two free months 11% Rp 1.236.364 9.8 months Rp 193,7 juta
20% off for 12 months 12% Rp 1.325.000 8.3 months Rp 221,2 juta

The table shows the trade-off a single CAC figure hides. The offer with the highest CAC, 20% off for a year, returns the most cash per 1,000 targeted households by month 24, because it wins more than twice as many switchers as no promotion. Two free months wins almost as many but pays back last, since the network carries the Rp 112.500 monthly service cost while billing nothing, and 10% of those switchers leave when billing starts. All of this depends on the switch rates, which are our assumptions. Test the lift of each offer in one area before rolling it out.

How do you plan market share gains and network capacity for competitor migration?

Model migration by coverage area: each area’s switch rate gives its market share gain, and each area’s spare ODP ports decide whether those switchers can be connected without new build. National figures are a poor guide. Bisnis.com, citing Opensignal, reported Telkomsel at 67% of Indonesia’s fixed broadband market, with ICON+ at about 9% and MyRepublic at about 6.5% (Bisnis.com, November 2025), and national fixed broadband penetration is about 21% (Bisnis.com, October 2025). Inside your footprint the competitor mix can look completely different, street by street.

67%Telkomsel’s reported share of Indonesian fixed broadband; basis not statedBisnis.com, citing Opensignal
21%national fixed broadband penetration, with a 50% target for 2029Bisnis.com
1:4 × 1:8a typical Indonesian FTTH split: 1:4 at the ODC and 1:8 at the ODPJurnal Jartel, 2025

Share of broadband households by coverage area before and after 12 months of competitor conversionPaired bars for three coverage areas and the whole footprint. Area A, a dense estate, rises from 37.5 to 43.5 percent with 144 switchers. Area B, mixed streets, rises from 28.1 to 32.6 percent with 72. Area C, a new estate, rises from 37.5 to 45.0 percent with 60. The whole footprint rises from 34.4 to 40.1 percent. The after bars grow from the left.Your share of broadband households, before and after conversionBeforeAfter 12 months of switchingArea A, dense estate+144 subscribers37.5%43.5% (+6.0 pts)Area B, mixed streets+72 subscribers28.1%32.6% (+4.5 pts)Area C, new estate+60 subscribers37.5%45.0% (+7.5 pts)Whole footprint+276 subscribers34.4%40.1% (+5.7 pts)Illustrative footprint: 9,000 homes passed and 4,800 broadband households in three areas. Switch rates: A 12%, B 8%, C 15% ofcompetitor customers. The competitor’s footprint share falls from 52.1% to 46.3%.Share of broadband households by coverage area before and after 12 months of competitor conversionPaired bars for three coverage areas and the whole footprint. Area A, a dense estate, rises from 37.5 to 43.5 percent with 144 switchers. Area B, mixed streets, rises from 28.1 to 32.6 percent with 72. Area C, a new estate, rises from 37.5 to 45.0 percent with 60. The whole footprint rises from 34.4 to 40.1 percent. The after bars grow from the left.Your share, before and afterBeforeAfter 12 monthsArea A, dense estate (+144)37.5%43.5%Area B, mixed streets (+72)28.1%32.6%Area C, new estate (+60)37.5%45.0%Whole footprint (+276)34.4%40.1%Illustrative: 9,000 homes passed, 4,800 broadbandhouseholds. Switch rates A 12%, B 8%, C 15%.Competitor share falls from 52.1% to 46.3%.

Figure 5: Model migration by coverage area. The footprint gains 5.7 points, but Area C gains most per household while Area B, the weakest area, gains least (illustrative model).

Figure 5 uses three areas in one illustrative footprint of 9,000 homes passed and 4,800 broadband households. The same campaign produces different switch rates: 12% of competitor customers in the dense estate, 8% on mixed streets, 15% in the new estate. Footprint share rises 5.7 points, from 34.4% to 40.1%, and the competitor falls from 52.1% to 46.3%. Area B, where you are weakest, gains least, which is a messaging question as much as a pricing one. Competing street by street is the core of an FTTH overbuild strategy.

ODP port utilisation by area before and after conversion against an 80 percent thresholdThree horizontal bars. Area A rises from 75 to 87 percent of its 1,200 ODP ports and needs 14 more ODPs. Area B rises from 56 to 65 percent of 800 ports and needs no build. Area C rises from 75 to 90 percent of 400 ports and needs 7 more ODPs. A dashed line marks the 80 percent planning threshold. The after-switching bars grow out from the current utilisation. In total 21 new ODPs and 6 PON ports cost about Rp 247.5 juta.ODP port utilisation after conversion, and what it triggers80% planning thresholdArea A, dense estate150 ODPs, 1,200 ports75%87% → +14 ODPsArea B, mixed streets100 ODPs, 800 ports56%65% → no buildArea C, new estate50 ODPs, 400 ports75%90% → +7 ODPsTotal: 21 new 8-port ODPs and 6 new PON ports, about Rp 247,5 juta.Blue: ports in use today. Red or teal: after switching. ODP = 8 ports (1:8 splitter), 4 ODPs per PON (1:4 at the ODC).Illustrative unit costs: Rp 7,5 juta per ODP with distribution extension, Rp 15 juta per PON port and ODC splitter.ODP port utilisation by area before and after conversion against an 80 percent thresholdThree horizontal bars. Area A rises from 75 to 87 percent of its 1,200 ODP ports and needs 14 more ODPs. Area B rises from 56 to 65 percent of 800 ports and needs no build. Area C rises from 75 to 90 percent of 400 ports and needs 7 more ODPs. A dashed line marks the 80 percent planning threshold. The after-switching bars grow out from the current utilisation. In total 21 new ODPs and 6 PON ports cost about Rp 247.5 juta.ODP port utilisation80%Area A, dense estate75→87%150 ODPs today; needs +14 ODPsArea B, mixed streets56→65%100 ODPs today; no build neededArea C, new estate75→90%50 ODPs today; needs +7 ODPsTotal: +21 ODPs, +6 PON ports, ~Rp 247,5 jt.Blue: in use today. Red/teal: after switching.8-port ODPs, 4 per PON. Unit costs illustrative:Rp 7,5 jt per ODP, Rp 15 jt per PON port.

Figure 6: Conversion is a capacity plan as well as a sales plan. The same 276 switchers push two areas past the threshold and leave one untouched (illustrative model and unit costs).

Figure 6 turns those switchers into ports. A study of an Indonesian FTTH design describes splitting 1:4 at the ODC and 1:8 at the ODP (Darsono, Anshori and Hudiono, Jurnal Jartel, 2025), so each ODP offers eight drop ports and four ODPs share one PON port. With an 80% planning threshold, which is our assumption, Areas A and C cross the line and need 14 and 7 new ODPs; Area B absorbs its switchers in existing ports. In total that is 21 ODPs and 6 PON ports, about Rp 247,5 juta at illustrative unit costs.

Coverage areas compared: share gain, build need and capex per switcher (illustrative)
Area Switchers Share before → after New ODPs Capex per switcher
A, dense estate 144 37.5% → 43.5% 14 about Rp 1,09 juta
B, mixed streets 72 28.1% → 32.6% 0 Rp 0
C, new estate 60 37.5% → 45.0% 7 about Rp 1,31 juta

The capacity view changes the commercial priority. Area C converts best but needs the most build per switcher; Area B converts worst but every switcher there is connected with no capex. The 276 switchers add Rp 69 juta of MRR at full price, or about Rp 38 juta of monthly gross profit at a 55% margin, so the Rp 247,5 juta build is recovered in about six and a half months on top of each switcher’s own CAC. Capex per switcher allocates PON ports in proportion to new ODPs; it is our arithmetic.

How should an FTTH team run a conversion simulation in a planning meeting?

Agree the inputs by area first, then compare offers, then check capacity before anyone commits budget. This order stops a sales target from being set before the network team has seen it.

  1. Map the areas. Homes passed, your subscribers, competitor subscribers and ODP ports in use, area by area.
  2. Set switch rates from evidence. Use past campaigns or door-to-door samples, one rate per area.
  3. Enter the offers. Installation fee waived or not, free months, discount and length, and expected drop-off at promotion end.
  4. Read revenue and payback together. Watch switcher ARPU, not only blended ARPU.
  5. Check ports before launch. Any area over the threshold needs build dates before sales targets.
  6. Save two scenarios. Compare a discount-led plan with a proof-led plan and take both to the board.

The Competitor Subscriber Conversion Simulator on our Tools page follows this order and keeps assumptions in your browser, so commercially sensitive numbers are not sent to a server.

Competitor subscriber conversion: frequently asked questions

What does a competitor subscriber conversion simulator do?

It forecasts what happens when an FTTH operator wins subscribers from a rival ISP. It turns switch rates, promotion terms and coverage-area data into subscriber growth, ARPU, incremental revenue, customer acquisition cost, payback period, market share and the ODP and PON ports the new customers will need.

How much revenue can converting competitor subscribers add?

In our illustrative model, 23 switchers a month for 12 months, with 1% monthly churn and a six-month Rp 200.000 promotion on a Rp 250.000 plan, add Rp 368 juta of revenue in the first 12 months and Rp 61,5 juta of MRR by month 18. Your result depends on your own switch rate, price and churn.

Does a promotional price lower ARPU?

It lowers the switchers’ ARPU far more than the company’s. In the same model, revenue per switcher starts at Rp 200.000 and reaches Rp 250.000 by month 18, while blended ARPU across 1,650 existing subscribers never falls more than 1.5%. The cost of the promotion appears in payback, so track switcher ARPU separately.

Which promotion has the lowest customer acquisition cost?

In our model, no promotion has the lowest CAC per switcher, Rp 900.000, and the fastest payback, 6.5 months, but it wins only 5% of targeted households. Free installation costs Rp 1.087.500 and pays back in 7.9 months; 20% off for 12 months costs Rp 1.325.000 and pays back in 8.3; two free months costs Rp 1.236.364 and pays back in 9.8.

Are free months or a discount better for winning switchers?

In the model, a 20% discount for 12 months pays back faster than two free months of similar value, 8.3 against 9.8 months, because service costs run during free months while nothing is billed. Real Indonesian offers use both: Internet Rakyat waived the first month, and MyRepublic offered a Rp 17.845 second-month bill in August 2026.

How do you forecast market share gains from competitor conversion?

Model each coverage area separately. Divide your subscribers by the broadband households in the area before and after conversion. In our three-area example, 276 switchers lift footprint share from 34.4% to 40.1% and cut the competitor’s share from 52.1% to 46.3%, with the largest gain in the area with the highest switch rate.

How many ODP ports does competitor migration need?

Add switchers to the subscribers already using each area’s ODP ports and compare the result with a planning threshold. With 8-port ODPs and an 80% threshold, our example needs 14 new ODPs in one area, 7 in another and none in the third: 21 ODPs and 6 PON ports, about Rp 247,5 juta at illustrative unit costs.

Where can I run the simulator?

TheWriter.id publishes its free FTTH planning tools on its Tools page, including the Competitor Subscriber Conversion Simulator. It runs in the browser, stores assumptions locally, and is a planning model only; results are estimates and not guaranteed subscriber, revenue or financial outcomes.

Sources

  1. Bisnis.com: Home internet prices 2026, Internet Rakyat vs MyRepublic vs IndiHome vs XL SATU (29 January 2026)
  2. Bisnis.com: MyRepublic Fiber offers Rp 17.845 Merdeka promotion (22 August 2026)
  3. Bisnis.com: How to get Internet Rakyat’s Rp 0 one-month trial (21 November 2025)
  4. Bisnis.com: IndiHome (Telkomsel) serves 9.8 million customers in Q1 2025 (6 May 2025)
  5. Bisnis.com: Opensignal report, Telkomsel holds 67% of Indonesia fixed broadband market (25 November 2025)
  6. Bisnis.com: Komdigi targets fixed broadband penetration rising from 21% to 50% by 2029 (1 October 2025)
  7. EY: Households worried about annual broadband price increases (4 December 2025)
  8. Ofcom: Around 3.5 million Brits hit switch amidst cost-of-living concerns (12 September 2026)
  9. Darsono, Anshori and Hudiono: Analysis of implementation of branching method in ODP in FTTH, Jurnal Jartel 15(3), 30 September 2025

Figures 1 to 6 and every subscriber, revenue, ARPU, CAC, payback, market share, port and capex figure on this page come from our illustrative model, not from any operator’s data. Its inputs are our assumptions: a Rp 250.000 plan, a 55% gross margin and Rp 112.500 monthly service cost, 23 gross wins a month for 12 months, 1% monthly churn among switchers, Rp 15.000 campaign cost per targeted household, Rp 900.000 installation and ONT cost, a Rp 300.000 installation fee, the switch rates and promotion-end drop-offs shown, three coverage areas, an 80% port threshold, Rp 7,5 juta per ODP and Rp 15 juta per PON port. The Jurnal Jartel study describes one case design, not a national standard; ODP sizes vary by operator. Bisnis.com articles report provider prices and promotions as published at the time and an Opensignal market-share figure without a stated basis. Internet Rakyat is fixed wireless, not fiber. EY’s survey covers 14 countries, not Indonesia, and Ofcom counts switches started in the UK. The simulator is a planning model only; its results are estimates and not guaranteed outcomes.